TL;DR: open rates are noisy and unreliable—ditch them for outcome-based metrics like replies, meetings, and revenue.
We all started with open rates. For years, they were the go-to metric. You send an email, you get a number back. Simple. But simple doesn’t mean accurate.
That “open” number is based on a tiny image being loaded. Not a person reading. Not someone interested. Just a pixel. And that pixel gets triggered by bots, filters, or even just dragging an email to the trash.
So if you’ve been making decisions based on opens, you’re flying blind. There’s a better way to track real outcomes—like replies, meetings, or sales. Let’s unpack why open rates mislead, and what to use instead.
How email open rate tracking actually works
Every time a marketing email is sent, a small invisible image—a tracking pixel—is quietly added to it. If that image is loaded, the system marks it as an “open.”
But here’s the catch: loading the image doesn’t mean someone read the email. It doesn’t even mean they saw it. The pixel could be triggered by a spam filter, an email preview, or a server preloading content.
Having worked on various client campaigns, I’ve seen firsthand how misleading this data can be. There’s no way to tell if the pixel was triggered by a person or a bot—or even by the sender’s own system.
There’s no confirmation, no context, and no way to tell what really happened—just an automated response to a pixel being pinged.
So remember: open rates don’t reflect interest or intent. They reflect pixels firing—and sometimes, that’s all they reflect.
Why email open rates are inaccurate and misleading
Open rates give you a number, but that number is shaky. It’s inflated by all kinds of things that have nothing to do with a real person reading your email.
False positives
Some email clients automatically load images to improve speed or show previews. Spam filters and bots often scan the email and trigger the pixel. Even dragging an email into a folder can set it off. I’ve seen pixels fire just because the inbox preloaded the message while someone hovered over it.
False negatives
If someone opens your email but their client blocks images, the pixel never loads. You won’t see that open, even though it happened. Some privacy features, like Apple’s Mail Privacy Protection, actively block this tracking by default. That means you’re missing opens from a huge part of your audience.
Third-party interference
Some email systems fetch images before the user even sees the message, just to cache them. That fetch still counts as an open—even though no one actually opened anything.
No signal of intent
Worst part? None of this data captures intent. It doesn’t tell you if someone skimmed, read, clicked, or cared. It just tells you a pixel was touched.
So when clients ask why their open rate looks high but no one replies, this is why. It’s not a useful measure of interest—just noise pretending to be signal.
How misleading open rates can hurt your email marketing strategy
If you’re using open rates to judge email campaign success, you’re likely making the wrong calls. I’ve worked on campaigns where subject line tests looked like clear wins—until we checked replies and found no change.
That’s the risk. Open rates can trick you into thinking something worked when it didn’t. Or worse, make you tweak the wrong thing. You might drop a subject line that actually performed well, just because it didn’t trigger as many pixel loads.
In short: you’re working with corrupted data. And in marketing, bad data leads to bad choices.
Instead of chasing open rate spikes, focus on what moves the business. Opens don’t pay the bills. Clients care about leads, revenue, and conversions. And if you’re not tying your email metrics back to those outcomes, you’re wasting time—and money.
When it’s okay to use email open rates (and when it’s not)
Open rates aren’t completely useless. They’re just limited. If you use them with your eyes open, they can still offer a rough directional signal.
Spotting delivery issues
If your open rate drops to near zero, something might be broken—bad DNS, spam folder issues, or domain reputation. That’s a good time to investigate. In these cases, opens can act like a smoke alarm: they won’t tell you where the fire is, but they’ll tell you to look.
Watching trends, not absolutes
You can also look at trends over time. If one email consistently underperforms the rest, there might be a subject line issue—or it could be timing, audience, or format. Either way, it’s a cue to dig deeper.
Always pair with better data
Never make final decisions based on email open rates alone. Combine them with reply rates, meetings, or conversions to see what’s actually working.
Used carefully, open rates are a starting point—not a decision point.
Better email marketing metrics to track instead of open rates
So if open rates are out, what should you track?
Reply rates
This is where real engagement starts. A reply shows intent. It proves someone read your message and cared enough to respond. For cold outreach or early-funnel emails, reply rate is often the most important signal.
Meetings booked
This is a clear, concrete outcome. If your campaign led to meetings, something worked. It’s especially useful for sales-led teams, where meetings directly feed the pipeline.
Revenue generated
The ultimate metric. If your emails lead to deals, upgrades, or signups, you’re winning. Revenue might take longer to tie back, but it’s worth the effort. Most CRMs let you trace conversions back to campaigns. Use that.
Campaign comparisons
Even without perfect tracking, you can compare different campaigns based on business results. Which ones drove demos? Which ones turned into trials or purchases? These comparisons help you learn and iterate, without relying on vanity metrics.
| Metric | What it tells you | Reliable? |
| Open rate | Pixel loaded | No |
| Reply rate | Real human engagement | Yes |
| Meetings booked | Sales interest confirmed | Yes |
| Revenue generated | Campaign contributed to pipeline | Yes |
Better signals lead to better strategy. Focus on what matters.
How to move beyond open rates in your email reporting
Here’s what I’d recommend if you’re still relying on open rates:
1. Audit your current reporting stack
Look at what you’re measuring and why. If open rates are front and center, ask yourself what decisions they’re driving—and whether those decisions are grounded in reality.
2. Educate your team or clients
Not everyone knows how unreliable open tracking really is. Walk them through what we’ve covered here. Use examples. Show them how inflated numbers can mislead.
3. Rebuild around real outcomes
Start small:
- Add reply rate tracking
- Map meetings to campaigns
- Tie revenue back to sends
You don’t have to overhaul everything at once. Just stop letting a pixel tell you what’s working. Your future decisions should be based on outcomes—not illusions.
